I'm continuing to track the press release numbers versus the more careful dashboard numbers for LA County (minus Long Beach and Pasadena). Currently, the press releases since July 15th has overstated the number of deaths by 15%, and over the last two weeks by 21.7%.
I've also graphed it. Notice the trendlines:
Again, blue is the press release and red is the more-careful dashboard. Notice the trendlines. The headline grabbing press release numbers, those numbers that get repeated in the news, are on the upswing, but the actual numbers are dropping fairly dramatically. A month ago, deaths in LA were around 40 a day, now they're down under 30, while the press releases show an increase of a few a day. The difference between the two trendlines is now around 33% (28 vs 37 on 8/9 (the last day outside the estimate range on the dashboard)).
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