Hospitalizations vs Variant B117


 

 


Northern Ireland & the EU

The trade status of Northern Ireland was one of the major sticking points in the negotiations between the UK and the EU--especially during Theresa May's tenure in No 10. The question was whether border controls would be built between the UK-NI and the EU-Ire.


But, the problem was never that the UK would put up a barrier. The problem was always that the EU was afraid of lower priced good getting in the UK, crossing the Irish border, and getting into the EU through the back door.


The EU hasn't even passed the Brexit deal through their parliament, and they are already invoking a clause in it and putting up that border:


https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1390911/Brexit-news-uk-eu-clause-european-commission-vaccine-latest-AstraZeneca-supply

Los Angeles covid data cooks the books (VIII)

It's been a while since I've posted. The difference between the daily press release numbers (the "we heard about these deaths today" numbers) and the carefully placed dashboard numbers (the "we did the work, and this is the day on the death certificate" numbers) remains widespread. It's been running around 13% pretty much every day now, and the graph looks like this:

Since I last posted, I found another data page. This one is corona-virus.la, and is supposed to be the city's data tracker. They also list the county side-by-side. This is from today:

The first thing to notice is that the city numbers are much smaller than the county. For cases, the city of LA is only 38% of the county, and 28% of the deaths. Of course, we are waiting for the whole, massive county, instead of relying on the city data. Here's a map of the city and county:

The second thing to notice is more subtle. Looking at the numbers for the county, they perfectly match the raw press release numbers. In other words, they are relying on the bad "we heard about it" data, not the clean death-certificate data.

How much difference does that make? If you go to the county dashboard (which is on publichealth.lacounty.gov), you can download the data. Because this data is carefully placed, you do have to wait a couple of days for the data to get cleaned. But up there on the graphic above is the data from the week of 9/13 - 9/19: 11, 24, 37, 31, 38, 22, and 13. That averages to 26.6. But if you look at the same dates on the dashboard, you get: 19, 14, 16, 18, 14, 11, 11. Which averages to 14.7

That's an overstatement of 83%.

Because they are looking at bad data, they are looking at numbers 83% higher than the good data that they also have. This isn't the case of hand-waving statistics that shouldn't be used in that way: this is literally about using the data that they have carefully vetted and maintained, instead of the data that they know and admit is bad.

If you go to the dashboard (publicheath.lacounty.gov), you'll note a gray area on the right and some footnotes on the graph:

Those footnotes might be a bit small, but they say:

Recent dates are incomplete due to lags in reporting. The gray box corresponds to dates that are likely to not yet be reported completely.

Cases reported by Episode Date which is the earliest existing value of: Date of Onset, Date of Diagnosis, Date of Death, Date Received, Specimen Collection Date. Deaths reported by Date of Death or Date Received if Date of Death is missing

Number of daily cases will not match the number of newly reported Los Angeles County cases as episode date reflects date of underlying illness rather than date of report.

So, if we look only at the dates to the left of the gray area, we have everything including 9/20. If we look at the average for the week ending 9/20 and the prior week we have averages of: 22.4 and 13.3, with a decrease of -40.6%. On corona-virus.la (the one above with the column graphs) what do they have for the change in from the previous to the current week? +8.1%.

I can not begin to say how much using the wrong numbers is pissing me off. Businesses are being destroyed--lives are being destroyed--every single day we remain closed down at a high level of lockdown.

Los Angeles covid data cooks the books (VII)

 I'm continuing to track the press release numbers versus the more careful dashboard numbers for LA County (minus Long Beach and Pasadena). Currently, the press releases since July 15th has overstated the number of deaths by 15%, and over the last two weeks by 21.7%.

I've also graphed it. Notice the trendlines:

Again, blue is the press release and red is the more-careful dashboard. Notice the trendlines. The headline grabbing press release numbers, those numbers that get repeated in the news, are on the upswing, but the actual numbers are dropping fairly dramatically. A month ago, deaths in LA were around 40 a day, now they're down under 30, while the press releases show an increase of a few a day. The difference between the two trendlines is now around 33% (28 vs 37 on 8/9 (the last day outside the estimate range on the dashboard)).

Who decides on reopening

The Recession Is Over for the Rich, But the Working Class Is Far from Recovered

“The recession is nearly over for high-wage workers, but low-wage workers are no more than half-recovered,” said Friedman, who led the research, which is sponsored by Harvard and Brown universities and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

When Governor Newsom created his reopening task force, he staffed it with high executives of major companies, former big-name politicians (good lord, recalled Gray Davis made the cut!) environmental and political activists, and union bosses. I doubt, highly doubt, anyone on the list had a household income under $400k or a net worth under $3mil, nor were any merely high school graduates, or--heaven forbid--drop outs. There wasn't one gardener, waitress, manufacturing laborer, check-out clerk, minimum-wage earner, or small business owner. It was all big names and flashy resumes. (Read the list for yourself.)

Now, here we are four months later, and those people who were unrepresented on that task force are still ordered to be poor and desperate--they're losing their businesses and homes, and their children will lose a year of education with all the lifetime of poverty that comes with that--while all the people in the task-force's class are working and getting paid, and their kids all have parents with the education or money to actually move forward academically this year.

Funny how that works, huh?

It comes down to the question of who decides. In a technocratic world, the well educated and well placed get the freedom to choose, everyone else gets told what to do--and gets screwed.

I doubt it even crossed Newsom's mind, or the mind of anyone else on the task force, to seek a diversity of employment, education, wages, or class. They assume they should rule, because they are wealthier and better credentialed. 

It's the modern aristocracy claiming their right to power.

Covid negative

 I was feeling a little under the weather last week: slight sniffles, bit of a headache, maybe a little sore throat; but, since I work in healthcare adjacent and at a hospital, I had to call the employee health line. They told me to get my brain reamed. 

 I went in yesterday morning to have  q-tip shoved up my nose and twirled. It actually wasn't bad, though if it had gone on much longer, it might have been. The worst was the nurse saying it could make my brain hurt for maybe an hour! Yay! Within about 15 minutes, any after effects had disappeared.

They just called, I'm clear.

Boss asked if I wanted to work from home the rest of the week anyway. I do still have something, and if someone else caught it, they'd have to go through the same thing, so home it is.