Real federal deficit

I missed this one back in May. It's an article looking at the federal budget if future liabilities are counted:
"Federal debt and retiree commitments equal $561,254 per household."
Real federal deficit dwarfs official tally –

Obama’s Next Supreme Court Nominee

Fighting Obama’s Next Supreme Court Nominee - By Ed Whelan - Bench Memos - National Review Online

The next nominee will be Hilary Clinton, for two reasons 1) a quid pro quo for Bill's help with the election--my guess is that this was spelled out in advance when Bill stepped up his end of the campaign. 2) Hilary would be a pretty easy confirmation, with the only wrinkle being her side of the Bengazi problems. I don't see that as a deal-killer, though.

Elephant in the other room

Republicans have been focusing today on the need to get Hispanic votes. While that is true, there is another chunk which we should also aim at. Look at these two numbers from the exit polls:

Are you?

               Total   Obama   Romney     
Hispanic        10%     71%     27%

How often do you attend religious services?

               Total   Obama   Romney     
Never           17%     62%     34%

So, Romney got 27% of the 10% of people who are Hispanic, but didn't do much better among the non-religious at 34% of the larger 17% group. If Romney had gotten 5% more of the secular vote he would have added 0.85% to his vote total. Getting 5% more of Hispanics only nets 0.5% more.

Every time Republicans talk values, every time they talk about god, even every time they end a speech with "God bless America," they are turning off a large chunk of population. If we are to go after the Hispanic vote, can we also make an effort to go after the secular vote?

Update: I worked it through with the numbers. Bottom line, a 5% shift of Hispanics would lower Obama's victory margin from 2.8 million to 1.6 million. A shift of 5% of Seculars would lower the margin from 2.8 to 0.8 mil. Doing both would have put Romney in the White House:

(Updated again to add the estimated results if both shift--assuming they are independent groups.)

Polls, and Democrat Turnout

National Polls, State Polls, and Democrat Turnout - By Jim Geraghty - The Campaign Spot - National Review Online

I think one big reason why so many polls have Dems out-performing 2008, is that Republicans have given up on much of the media and simply hang up on pollsters. Thus, the results are skewed towards Dems.