Employment analysis

In the Clinton-Bush recession we have household employment peaking in January, 2001 before dropping to a low in January, 2002. Employment started at 135,999 and dropped 1.9% to 133,468--2.5 million lost jobs.

Similarly, the employers' survey reported a high in May, 2001 and a low in August, 2003 - lasting substantially longer than the household survey: 13 months versus 27 months. The employment survey dropped 2.0% from a high of 132,453 to a low of 129,761--2.7 million lost jobs.

It then took an additional 17 months to recover back to it's original level--44 months overall. (It's hard to calculate the recovery of the household data, because of a major change to the methodology of the survey.

The current recession puts that one to shame.

High Household: Nov, 2007     146,703
Current Household:Sept, 2009     138,864
Difference:-5.3%-7.839 mil
   
High Establishment: Oct, 2007138,362
Current Establishment: Sep, 2009130,947
Difference: -5.4%-7,415 mil

Job losses in the two recessions: 2% vs 5.3%
Time to valley of employment (household): 13 months vs 23 months and counting.
Time to valley of employment (establishment): 27 months vs 24 months and counting.

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